This report estimates future oil and gas production for the selected well using decline curve analysis (DCA), a standard industry method that projects future rates based on how a well's production has historically declined over time.

1. Production recency check. Before anything else, the well's most recent production month is checked against the "Require Production Within" setting above the charts (3–36 months, measured back from the most recent publicly reported data across the whole dataset — not from today). If the well hasn't produced recently enough, no forecast is attempted at all — only its historical data is shown, with an explanation.

2. Establishing the decline trend. The well's monthly production is converted to a daily rate. Analysis begins at the well's historical peak rate, not its first month on production — early months often reflect ramp-up or facility cleanup rather than the well's true decline behavior, so they're excluded from the fit.

3. Fitting two industry-standard models. Two well-established Arps decline models are fit to the historical trend:

• Exponential — assumes a constant percentage decline rate over time.
  q(t) = q_i · e^−D_it
• Hyperbolic — assumes the decline rate itself slows over time, generally producing a longer forecast "tail." This is the more common pattern for unconventional wells.
  q(t) = q_i / (1 + b·D_i·t)^1/b

In both equations, q(t) is the forecast rate at time t (months since the well's peak rate), q_i is the initial (peak) rate, and D_i is the initial decline rate — these are the same q_i / D_i / b values shown in the Summary Parameters panel next to each chart. Setting b = 0 in the hyperbolic equation reduces it to the exponential case, which is why exponential decline is sometimes described as hyperbolic decline's limiting case.

Both models are fit mathematically to the well's own production history. A model is only shown if it represents a genuine decline (a model that would trend upward instead of down is discarded rather than displayed). Whichever valid model fits the history more closely (based on R², a standard goodness-of-fit measure) is marked as the recommended model; both are shown whenever both are valid, so you can compare them directly. The fitted curve is drawn directly on the chart, overlaid on the historical data, so you can visually judge fit quality alongside the R² number.

4. Projecting forward. Each fitted model is extended 120 months (10 years) beyond the last month of production data, generating a monthly forecast of future rates.

5. Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR). Each model's EUR is the sum of everything the well has produced to date plus everything the model forecasts it will produce over the 10-year forecast window. "Rem. Rec." (Remaining Recoverable) is that EUR minus what's already been produced — i.e., what the model expects the well to produce from today forward.

6. Units. Use the Imperial/Metric toggle above the charts to switch between bbl/day and Mcf/day (rates), and Mbbl/Bcf and m³/e3m³ (cumulative volumes).